Crypto Analyst Uses Historical Data To Predict When Bitcoin Price Will Reach $200,000

The
Bitcoin
price
has
been
expected
to
hit
the
6-figure
mark
for
a
couple
of
years
now,
but
this
target
continues
to
be
elusive
for
the
cryptocurrency.
However,
with
a
crypto
bull
run
predicted
by
experts
to
be
around
the
corner,
the
expectations
for
a
6-figure
Bitcoin
price
have
emerged
once
again.
One
crypto
analyst
in
particular
has
taken
it
a
step
further,
predicting
when
the
Bitcoin
price
will
hit
$200,000
based
off
of
historical
data.

Bitcoin
Power
Law
And
Exponential
Decay
Theory

In
an
X
(formerly
Twitter)
post,
pseudonymous
crypto
analyst
@apsk32
pointed
out
a
13-year
trend
that
has
held
true
for
Bitcoin
since
its
inception.
This
trend
uses
a
power
law
equation
and
an
exponential
decay
to
help
pinpoint
how
high
the
Bitcoin
price
will
go
in
each
cycle
and
how
low
it
could
possibly
drop
after.

The
Power
Law
Cycle
Cloud,
demonstrated
by
the
crypto
analyst
in
a
video
attached
to
the
X
post,
showed
how
high
the
BTC
price
has
risen
and
dropped
in
the
last
three
bull
and
bear
cycles.
Using
the
same
trend,
the
crypto
analyst
has
proposed
how
high
the
Bitcoin
price
will
rise.

According
to
the
trend,
the
crypto
analyst
believes
that
the
Bitcoin
price
will
break
the
6-figure
mark
and
peak
just
below
or
at
$200,000.
The
year
when
this
is
expected
to
happen
is
2025,
which
would
stick
to
the
established
four-year
bull
cycles
for
BTC.

Just
like
the
trend
predicts
how
high
the
price
will
go,
it
also
shows
how
low
it
could
drop
in
the
bear
market
following
the
bull.
It
predicts
that
in
2026,
BTC
will
fall
around
57.5%
from
its
$200,000
high
to
create
a
low
at
$85,000.

The
crypto
analyst
further
addressed
concerns
that
the
Bitcoin
price
could
deviate
from
this
trend.
For
one,
he
points
out
that
Bitcoin
proponent
Micheal
Saylor
had
said
that
“all
your
models
will
be
broken!”
However,
the
analyst
highlights
the
fact
that
the
model
Saylor
eventually
presents
for
BTC
also
aligns
with
what
the
Power
Law
says.

The
analyst
also
acknowledges
the
potential
of
an
invalidation,
saying,
“I’ll
watch
for
an
invalidation
of
the
channel.
As
someone
who’s
seen
the
value
of
their
BTC
fall
by
80%
twice,
I’m
looking
for
more
than
‘this
time
will
be
different’.”

As
for Bitcoin
moving
away

from
the
power
law
and
exponential
decay
trend,
the
crypto
analyst
explained,
“We
don’t
have
to
like
this,
but
we
need
to
respect
it.”
He
further
added,
“We
can
hope
it
will
change
while
staying
aware
of
this
13-year
trend.”

Featured
image
created
with
Dall.E,
chart
from
Tradingview.com