Glassnode: Bitcoin (BTC) Investors See Speculative Activity amid Mt. Gox Distribution Preparations

After
months
of
stagnation
and
sideways
price
action,
the
Bitcoin
(BTC)
market
is
showing
the
first
signs
of
renewed
speculative
activity.
This
development
follows
a
recent
false
alarm
regarding
the
distribution
of
the
Mt.
Gox
supply,
according
to
Glassnode
Insights.

Mt.
Gox
on
the
Move

On
May
28,
2024,
the
market
reacted
to
an
internal
wallet
consolidation
by
the
Mt.
Gox
Trustee,
the
legal
entity
overseeing
the
141,000
BTC
from
the
defunct
exchange.
Mark
Karpeles,
the
former
CEO
of
Mt.
Gox,
confirmed
that
the
coin
movement
was
related
to
internal
wallet
management
in
preparation
for
creditor
distributions,
which
are
expected
to
be
completed
by
October
2024.

Glassnode’s
Point-in-Time
(PiT)
metrics
provide
a
detailed
view
of
the
Mt.
Gox
balances,
demonstrating
that
over
141,000
BTC
were
moved
in
several
tranches
on
the
day
of
the
consolidation.

Capital
Flows
and
Composition

The
impact
of
the
Mt.
Gox
coin
movements
is
evident
in
several
on-chain
metrics
such
as
Realized
Cap
and
SOPR,
which
show
significant
spikes.
These
metrics
reflect
the
revaluation
of
coins
to
higher
cost
bases
during
wallet
management
transactions.

Glassnode’s
entity-adjusted
Realized
Cap
metric
filters
out
non-economical
transfers
to
provide
a
clearer
picture
of
capital
flows
into
Bitcoin.
Currently,
the
Realized
Cap
is
at
an
all-time
high
(ATH)
of
$580
billion.
However,
new
liquidity
inflows
have
slowed
since
late
April
as
the
market
consolidated.

The
Realized
Cap
HODL
Waves
metric
indicates
that
41%
of
network
wealth
is
held
by
coins
younger
than
three
months,
suggesting
that
new
demand
is
absorbing
a
significant
portion
of
the
available
supply.

A
Long-Term
Holders
Market

Despite
recent
sideways
price
action,
a
majority
of
Short-Term
Holder
(STH)
coins
are
now
held
in
unrealized
profit.
This
is
supported
by
data
showing
that
56%
of
the
STH
supply
was
in
a
loss
position
following
a
recent
market
pullback
to
$58,000.

Long-Term
Holders
(LTH)
remain
resilient,
with
only
4,900
BTC
(0.03%
of
LTH
supply)
held
above
the
current
spot
price.
This
is
typical
of
early
bull
market
phases,
where
LTHs
hold
the
majority
of
supply
in
profit.

Room
for
Growth

The
Sell-Side
Risk
Ratio,
which
measures
the
absolute
value
of
profit
and
loss
relative
to
the
Realized
Cap,
indicates
that
both
Long
and
Short-Term
Holders
have
reached
a
new
equilibrium.
This
suggests
that
the
market
is
poised
for
increased
volatility
in
the
near
future.

For
LTHs,
the
Sell-Side
Risk
Ratio
increased
significantly
as
profits
were
taken
around
the
$73,000
ATH.
However,
the
current
level
remains
lower
compared
to
previous
market
cycles,
implying
that
LTHs
may
be
waiting
for
higher
prices
before
ramping
up
distribution.

Summary
and
Conclusion

The
first
signs
of
market
speculation
are
re-emerging
after
a
multi-month
price
consolidation.
Both
new
buyers
and
single-cycle
investors
are
primarily
holding
unrealized
profits,
and
only
0.03%
of
LTHs
are
in
a
position
of
loss.
This
is
typical
of
the
early
euphoric
phase
of
a
bull
market.

Over
the
last
two
months,
the
Sell-Side
Risk
Ratio
for
both
Long
and
Short-Term
Holders
has
reset
to
equilibrium,
suggesting
that
the
majority
of
profit
and
loss
likely
to
be
taken
in
this
price
range
has
been
realized.
This
sets
the
stage
for
potential
substantial
volatility
in
the
near
future.

Image
source:
Shutterstock

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