Will The Top Crypto Defy Historical Downtrends?

Bitcoin
historically
tends
to
have
a
tough
time
during
the
month
of
September,
as
quite
often
it
delivers
negative
returns
to
traders.
Despite
the
gloomy
trend,
the
current
forecast
of
BTC
price
is
surprisingly
rosy,
anticipating
it
to
rise
30%
by
October
1,
2024.
But
will
this
bullish
forecast
last,
or
is
Bitcoin
in
for
yet
another
raw
deal
in
the
weeks
ahead?

BTC
prices
have
not
been
able
to
stay
above
$60,000.
The
coin
was
most
recently
rejected
at
the
psychological
level
on
August
27.
It
then
went
through
a
quick
10%
correction
over
the
next
two
days.
That
drop
helped
wipe
out
$140
million
in
leveraged
BTC
longs.
Speculators
now
join
the
chorus
of
many
wondering:
why
can’t
Bitcoin
break
through
$60,000?

Mixed
Bag
Of
Metrics

Despite
this,
on-chain
evidence
suggests
otherwise.
Santiment
reported
$4.2
billion
in
August
2024
crypto
trading
profits.
Despite
substantial
profit-taking,
whale
transactions—large
transfers
worth
$100,000
or
more—have
dropped
to
their
lowest
levels
in
almost
four
years,
suggesting
that
big
players
are
holding
onto
their
crypto
in
anticipation
of
rising
prices.

The
supply
of
Bitcoin
on
exchanges
has
also
fallen
to
its
lowest
in
as
many
months.
Normally,
when
the
supply
on
exchanges
begins
to
fall,
this
is
a
sign
of
bullishness.
Less
Bitcoin
on
the
exchanges
means
less
people
looking
to
sell
it.
Theoretically,
this
can
drive
up
the
price
of
it.

But
here
is
the
catch:
Spot
Bitcoin
ETFs
that
were
supposedly
going
to
herald
unprecedented
institutional
inflows
have
seen
underwhelming
outflows.
Some
analysts
make
sure
to
note
that
ETF
outflows
are
always
a
lagging
indicator,
as
bearish
mood
after
major
news
events
usually
reflects
later
on.
Yet,
such
outflows
only
add
more
ambiguity
to
that,
and
traders
simply
remain
in
doubt
whether
this
promise
of
institutional
demand
ever
comes
or
just
fizzles
out.

ETF
Outflows
And
Traditional
Markets

Further,
contributing
to
Bitcoin’s
current
quagmire
is
traditional
finance.
Concerns
from
conventional
finance
players
caused
the
crypto
asset’s
$61,000
rejection.
High
dependence
on
tech
firms,
especially
AI-driven
ones,
worries
them.
This
has
increased
pessimism,
matching
market
expectations
for
a
100%
interest
rate
decrease
in
September.

Recent
fluctuations
in
the
price
of
Bitcoin
have
moved
in
lockstep
with
the
S&P
500
index,
underlining
the
increasingly
correlated
nature
of
cryptocurrency
and
traditional
markets.
That
may
mean
the
future
of
Bitcoin
is
pegged
to
general
economic
fortunes
–
for
better
or
worse.

Bitcoin:
Time
To
Buy?

At
the
time
of
writing,
BTC
was
trading
at
$57,515,
down
1.5%
and
10.3%
in
the
24-hour
and
weekly
timeframe,
data
from
Coingecko
shows.

Although
on-chain
statistics
show
promise,
the
prevailing
mood
is
far
from
optimistic.
By
October,
CoinCodex’s
most
recent
Bitcoin
price
estimate
predicts
the
price
40%.
That
is
rather
significant.
Their
technical
indicators,
however,
show
a
bearish
attitude,
and
the
Fear
&
Greed
Index
comes
out
as
Fearful,
at
26.

Featured
image
from
CNBC,
chart
from
TradingView